2022 Final Remarks
This is blog post #10.1 in a series of analytical posts about the 2022 midterms. But this time it’s more for fun than analysis. The Plan Today I couldn’t end this series without saying a few final remarks, so here we are! It’s been a long and rewarding journey of learning and adapting, so I wanted to summarize a few of the top lessons learned, give thanks, and look forward.
Campaign Narrative
This is blog post #10 (the final, final one!) in a series of analytical posts about the 2022 midterms. This post is affiliated with Gov 1347: Election Analytics, a course at Harvard University in the Government department. Overview After months of studying the midterm elections at the national and district levels, we’ve gained a more complete understanding of the factors that predict incumbent party performance in terms of two-party vote share and seat wins.
Post-Election Reflection
This is blog post #9 (post-election) in a series of analytical posts about the 2022 midterms. This post is affiliated with Gov 1347: Election Analytics, a course at Harvard University in the Government department. Overview This week, I am revisiting my final models and predictions from week 8 and reflecting on how they performed, and speculating about why, now that we’re about 2 weeks post-Election Day now. My Final Model and Predictions National Model My national modeling addressed two main goals: predicting the 2022 House incumbent party two-party vote share and predicting the 2022 House incumbent party seat count.
Final Prediction
This is blog post #8 (the final one!) in a series of analytical posts about the 2022 midterms. This post is affiliated with Gov 1347: Election Analytics, a course at Harvard University in the Government department. Overview Welcome to the final election forecasting update of this election cycle! It’s been a long journey of election research and data analysis, but alas, we are one day out from Election Day. In today’s blog post, I am going to present my final predictions in detail, which will involve model formulas, model descriptions, model coefficients, model interpretations, model validation, prediction confidence intervals, and visualizations for my national and district-level models.
Shocks
This is blog post #7 in a series of analytical posts about the 2022 midterms. This post is affiliated with Gov 1347: Election Analytics, a course at Harvard University in the Government department. The Plan This Week Election Day is about two weeks out! So far, I’ve investigated the fundamentals (president’s-party-midterm effect, the economy, incumbency), the campaigns (air war, ground game), and experts (their forecasts) as predictors of election outcomes to determine if I should incorporate them as variables in my own election model.
The Ground Game
This is blog post #6 in a series of analytical posts about the 2022 midterms. This post is affiliated with Gov 1347: Election Analytics, a course at Harvard University in the Government department. The Plan This Week Last week, I investigated the impact of television advertisements on party success at the district level, and found a small, arguably negligible, effect. This week, I delve into the other major side of campaign activities – “the ground game.
The Air War
This is blog post #5 in a series of analytical posts about the 2022 midterms. This post is affiliated with Gov 1347: Election Analytics, a course at Harvard University in the Government department. The Plan This Week We are about 4 weeks out from Election Day, and thus far I’ve created a national forecasting model that incorporates national economic conditions (Gross Domestic Product, Real Disposable Income, and unemployment), generic ballot polling (partisan preference), and the midterm-president’s-party effect.
Expert Predictions
This is blog post #4 in a series of analytical posts about the 2022 midterms. This post is affiliated with Gov 1347: Election Analytics, a course at Harvard University in the Government department. The Plan This Week Last week, I took a close look at The Economist’s and FiveThirtyEight’s House forecast models and their methodology, and compared them. With these models in mind, I updated my own 2022 midterm forecast and model to include national economic conditions (Gross Domestic Product, Real Disposable Income, and unemployment), generic ballot polls (partisan preference), and the midterm-president’s-party effect.
Polls and Pollsters
This is blog post #3 in a series of analytical posts about the 2022 midterms. This post is affiliated with Gov 1347: Election Analytics, a course at Harvard University in the Government department. The Plan This Week So far, I’ve confirmed that the president’s party often performs poorly in the midterm House elections and that a combination of fundamental (Q8, national) economic variables, including GDP growth %, RDI change %, unemployment rate, and absolute GDP growth, are somewhat able to predict House incumbent party vote share.
Economic Predictors of House Incumbent Vote Share
This is blog post #2 in a series of analytical posts about the 2022 midterms. This post is affiliated with Gov 1347: Election Analytics, a course at Harvard University in the Government department. Last week, my dive into the 2018 election results and swings confirmed that the president’s party often performs poorly in the midterms. By the 2020 House elections, the president’s party gained some of its vote share back.